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While The World Ahead includes many predictions, the ten major themes for 2022 are as follows:
1. Democracy v autocracy. America’s mid-term elections and China’s Communist Party congress will vividly contrast their rival political systems. Which is better at delivering stability, growth and innovation? This rivalry will play out in everything from trade to tech regulation, vaccinations to space stations. As President Joe Biden tries to rally the free world under the flag of democracy, his dysfunctional, divided country is a poor advertisement for its merits.
2. Pandemic to endemic. New antiviral pills, improved antibody treatments and more vaccines are coming. For vaccinated folks in the developed world, the virus will no longer be life-threatening. But it will still pose a deadly danger in the developing world. Unless vaccinations can be stepped up, covid-19 will have become just another of the many endemic diseases that afflict the poor but not the rich.
3. Inflation worries. Supply-chain disruptions and a spike in energy demand have pushed up prices. Central bankers say it’s temporary, but not everyone believes them. Britain is at particular risk of stagflation, due to post-Brexit labour shortages and its dependence on expensive natural gas.
4. The future of work. There is a broad consensus that the future is “hybrid”, and that more people will spend more days working from home. But there is much scope for disagreement on the details. How many days, and which ones? And will it be fair? Surveys show that women are less keen to return to the office, so they may risk being passed over for promotions. Debates also loom over tax rules and monitoring of remote workers.
5.The New techlash. Regulators in America and Europe have been trying to rein in the tech giants for years, but have yet to make a dent in their growth or profits. Now China has taken the lead, lashing its tech firms in a brutal crackdown. President Xi Jinping wants them to focus on “deep tech” that provides geostrategic advantage, not frivolities like games and shopping. But will this boost Chinese innovation, or stifle the industry’s dynamism?
6. Crypto grows up. Like all disruptive technologies, cryptocurrencies are being domesticated as regulators tighten rules. Central banks are also looking to launch their own, centralised, digital currencies. The result is a three-way fight for the future of finance—between the crypto-blockchain-DeFi crowd, more traditional technology firms and central banks—that will intensify in 2022.
7. Climate crunch. Even as wildfires, heatwaves and floods increase in frequency, a striking lack of urgency prevails among policymakers when it comes to tackling climate change. Moreover, decarbonisation requires the West and China to co-operate, just as their geopolitical rivalry is deepening. Keep an eye on a solar-engineering experiment due to be carried out by Harvard researchers in 2022, releasing dust from a high-altitude balloon to dim sunlight—a technique that may, at this rate, be needed to buy the world more time to decarbonise.
8. Travel trouble. Activity is picking up as economies reopen. But countries that pursued a zero covid “suppression” strategy, such as Australia and New Zealand, face the tricky task of managing the transition to a world in which the virus is endemic. Meanwhile, as much as half of business travel is gone for good. That is good for the planet, but bad for tourists whose trips are subsidised by high-spending business travellers.
9. Space races. 2022 will be the first year in which more people go to space as paying passengers than government employees, carried aloft by rival space-tourism firms. China will finish its new space station. Film-makers are vying to make movies in zero-g. And nasa will crash a space probe into an asteroid, in a real-life mission that sounds like a Hollywood film.
10. Political footballs. The Winter Olympics in Beijing and the football World Cup in Qatar will be reminders of how sport can bring the world together—but also how big sporting events often end up being political footballs. Expect protests directed at both host countries, though boycotts by national teams seem unlikely.
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